TheoryMarch 8, 202640 min read

共同創業者マッチングの適合関数モデル: 誰と組むべきかをどう評価するか

ビジョン整合、ガバナンス適合、修復可能性、能力補完、外部ゲーム制約から共同創業者適合を定式化する

共同創業者選定は、直感、相性、勢いで行われがちだが、それではコストが高すぎる。本稿は cofounder selection を fit-function problem として捉え、ミッション整合、時間軸整合、能力補完、ガバナンス適合、修復可能性、外部ゲーム制約などの変数から、誰と会社を作るべきかを定量的に考える枠組みを提示する。

cofounder-matchingfit-functiongame-theorycofoundersstartup-governanceorganizational-designfounder-dynamicsfounder-theory-seriesMARIA-OSja
TheoryMarch 8, 202638 min read

Cofounder Matching Fit Function Model: How to Evaluate Who Should Build Together

A formal model of founder pair fit using vision alignment, governance compatibility, repairability, capability complementarity, and multi-game constraints

Most founders select partners through intuition, chemistry, or convenience. This paper argues that cofounder selection should instead be treated as a fit-function problem. A strong founding pair requires not only shared ambition but compatible time horizons, repair dynamics, governance logic, household constraints, and complementary capabilities. The model defines cofounder fit as a weighted function with penalty terms and threshold conditions for stable collaboration.

cofounder-matchingfit-functiongame-theorycofoundersstartup-governanceorganizational-designfounder-dynamicsfounder-theory-seriesMARIA-OS
TheoryMarch 8, 202641 min read

創業者離脱の閾値モデル: 共同創業者はなぜ徐々にではなく相転移的に離脱するのか

信頼負債、ランウェイ圧力、外部選択肢、修復可能性から見る founder exit の状態遷移モデル

共同創業者の離脱は、気分の低下や関係悪化として物語られがちだが、実際には複数の状態変数が積み上がり、ある閾値を超えた時に非線形に起こることが多い。本稿は founder exit を threshold crossing として定式化し、離脱がどのように準備され、なぜ直前まで見えにくいのかを説明する。

founder-exitthreshold-modelgame-theorycofoundersstartup-governanceorganizational-designtrust-debtrepeated-gamesfounder-dynamicsfounder-theory-series
TheoryMarch 8, 202639 min read

Founder Exit Threshold Model: Why Cofounders Rarely Leave Gradually

A state-transition view of founder departure using trust debt, runway stress, outside options, and repair credibility

Founder departures are often narrated as emotional drift, but they behave more like threshold events. This paper models cofounder exit as a nonlinear transition: multiple stress variables accumulate over time, and once a founder's exit pressure crosses a personal threshold for long enough, the organization moves from unstable cooperation into departure dynamics.

founder-exitthreshold-modelgame-theorycofoundersstartup-governanceorganizational-designtrust-debtrepeated-gamesfounder-dynamicsfounder-theory-series
TheoryMarch 8, 202644 min read

繰り返しゲームとしての共同創業者関係: スタートアップ協力はなぜ時間軸の共有に依存するのか

割引率、相互性、家庭制約との重複ゲームから見る、共同創業者が壊れる本当の理由

スタートアップは1回限りの交渉ではない。採用、開発、資金調達、危機対応、責任分担を通じて、同じプレイヤーが何度も協力と非協力を選び続ける繰り返しゲームである。本稿は共同創業者関係を repeated game として定式化し、協力が持続する条件と、能力があっても関係が壊れる構造的理由を説明する。

repeated-gamesgame-theorycofoundersstartup-governancediscount-factorcooperationorganizational-designfounder-dynamicsfounder-theory-seriesMARIA-OS
TheoryMarch 8, 202642 min read

Repeated Games and the Cofounder Problem: Why Startup Cooperation Depends on Shared Time Horizons

Discount factors, reciprocity, and overlapping household constraints explain why capable founders still fail to sustain cooperation

A startup is not a one-shot negotiation. It is a repeated game played through hiring, product crises, financing pressure, and daily trust updates. This paper applies repeated-game theory to cofounder relationships and shows why long-term cooperation depends less on abstract loyalty than on shared time horizons, sufficiently high discount factors, and freedom from external games that dominate short-term decisions.

repeated-gamesgame-theorycofoundersstartup-governancediscount-factorcooperationorganizational-designfounder-dynamicsfounder-theory-seriesMARIA-OS
TheoryFebruary 14, 202642 min read

Civilization Simulation as a Governance Laboratory: Emergent Institutional Evolution in Constrained Multi-Nation Systems

How 13 immutable laws, 4 sovereign nations, and 10-day cycles generate institutional patterns comparable to real-world governance dynamics

The Civilization simulation in MARIA OS provides a controlled environment for studying institutional evolution under constrained multi-agent dynamics. We formalize the 13 Laws as a constitutional constraint manifold, model the Civilization Evolution Index (CEI) as a multi-dimensional health metric over 90-day spans, and show that the 67% constitutional-amendment threshold creates sharp topology transitions. Game-theoretic analysis of inter-nation competition identifies Nash equilibria aligned with known institutional archetypes.

civilizationinstitutional-evolutiongovernance-laboratorygame-theoryCEIconstitutional-amendmentphase-transitionsmulti-nation
MathematicsFebruary 14, 202618 min read

Conflict Resolution in Hierarchical Agent Teams: Practical Protocols Instead of Overstated Mechanism Proofs

Use structured scoring, bounded escalation, and explicit tie-breaks when agents disagree

Inter-agent conflict is normal in multi-agent teams. The operational challenge is not to eliminate disagreement but to resolve it with bounded delay and acceptable fairness. This article reframes conflict resolution as a protocol design problem: classify the conflict, compare admissible options under a shared scorecard, and escalate only when the local team cannot safely decide.

team-designconflict-resolutiongame-theoryNash-equilibriummechanism-designescalation-protocolsPareto-optimalhierarchical-teams
Industry ApplicationsFebruary 12, 202648 min read

Multi-Universe Strategic Optimization: Minimax Theory for CEO Decision Systems

Worst-case utility optimization across parallel business universes and its implementation in MARIA OS

CEO decisions are multi-objective: each strategy affects Finance, Market, HR, and Regulatory universes with partially conflicting goals. This paper formalizes the problem as a minimax game over universe-utility vectors, derives `StrategyScore S = min_i U_i` as a robust objective candidate, constructs conflict matrices from inter-universe correlations, and characterizes a computable Pareto frontier. We connect the framework to MARIA OS MAX-gate design and report simulation results where minimax-oriented policies improved worst-case outcomes by 34% versus weighted-average baselines while retaining 91% of best-case upside.

strategy-simulationminimaxmulti-universeoptimizationgame-theoryceogovernance
ArchitectureFebruary 12, 202645 min read

Quality Assurance in Multi-Agent Parallel Execution: A Game-Theoretic Framework for Zone Partitioning and Gate Design

How responsibility gates and zone architecture can shift multi-agent conflicts from defection-prone dynamics toward cooperative equilibria

Multi-agent systems executing tasks in parallel face a quality challenge: conflict rates can grow quadratically with agent count. This paper presents a game-theoretic framework showing how responsibility gates and zone partitioning reduce conflict pressure while retaining high task completion. In evaluated settings, the design reported over 91% conflict-rate reduction with 98.7% task completion.

multi-agentgame-theoryparallel-executionzone-partitioningnash-equilibriumquality-assurance
MathematicsJanuary 6, 202617 min read

Game Theory of Agent Organizations: Designing for Stable Cooperation in Repeated Play

Sanctions and visibility can sustain cooperation without claiming universal Nash miracles

Multi-agent organizations drift toward local selfishness when the immediate gain from defecting is larger than the immediate gain from cooperating. This article models that pressure using repeated games, then shows how evidence visibility, sanctions, and future access costs can make cooperation the safer long-run strategy. The result is a practical calibration rule rather than an overstated proof of a unique equilibrium in production settings.

game-theorycooperationprisoner-dilemmanash-equilibriumresponsibility-gatesmechanism-design