TheoryMarch 8, 202641 min read

創業者離脱の閾値モデル: 共同創業者はなぜ徐々にではなく相転移的に離脱するのか

信頼負債、ランウェイ圧力、外部選択肢、修復可能性から見る founder exit の状態遷移モデル

共同創業者の離脱は、気分の低下や関係悪化として物語られがちだが、実際には複数の状態変数が積み上がり、ある閾値を超えた時に非線形に起こることが多い。本稿は founder exit を threshold crossing として定式化し、離脱がどのように準備され、なぜ直前まで見えにくいのかを説明する。

founder-exitthreshold-modelgame-theorycofoundersstartup-governanceorganizational-designtrust-debtrepeated-gamesfounder-dynamicsfounder-theory-series
TheoryMarch 8, 202639 min read

Founder Exit Threshold Model: Why Cofounders Rarely Leave Gradually

A state-transition view of founder departure using trust debt, runway stress, outside options, and repair credibility

Founder departures are often narrated as emotional drift, but they behave more like threshold events. This paper models cofounder exit as a nonlinear transition: multiple stress variables accumulate over time, and once a founder's exit pressure crosses a personal threshold for long enough, the organization moves from unstable cooperation into departure dynamics.

founder-exitthreshold-modelgame-theorycofoundersstartup-governanceorganizational-designtrust-debtrepeated-gamesfounder-dynamicsfounder-theory-series