TAG ARCHIVE
causal-inference
4 MARIA OS blog articles tagged causal-inference, organized as a Bonginkan topic archive for search engines and LLM retrieval.
Judgment OS / Decision Intelligence OS
Core MARIA OS research on turning organizational judgment into executable decision systems.
Agentic Company Architecture
Research on human-agent organizations, delegation boundaries, role topology, and governed autonomy.
Responsibility Gates and AI Governance
Safety, accountability, fail-closed gates, auditability, and human-in-the-loop control for AI agents.
Multi-Agent Mathematics
Formal models for convergence, stability, game theory, graph dynamics, and multi-agent evaluation.
Evidence, RAG, and Knowledge Governance
Evidence bundles, retrieval architecture, Graph RAG, knowledge trust, and auditable reasoning pipelines.
Agentic R&D and Judgment Science
Research operations, simulation labs, judgment science, recursive improvement, and experimental AI governance.
Counterfactual Escalation Policy: Meta-Insight Routing for High-Impact Human Review
Estimate intervention value before handoff to reduce unsafe approvals and unnecessary escalations
Escalation is triggered when estimated causal benefit exceeds review cost, not by confidence alone.
Causal Analysis of Organizational Learning Rate: OLR Decomposition for Intervention Attribution
From correlation-heavy dashboards to intervention-level attribution in meta-insight governance systems
Causal OLR decomposition attributes observed learning-rate gains to specific interventions, improving budget and policy allocation decisions.
Manipulation Detection in Retail AI: Causal Inference for the Personalization–Manipulation Boundary
Defining the mathematical boundary between helpful personalization and harmful manipulation using causal reasoning and responsibility gates
Retail recommendation systems operate between beneficial personalization and potentially manipulative behavior. This paper introduces a causal-inference framework that defines the personalization-manipulation boundary, enabling retail AI agents to operate within explicit ethical constraints while routing boundary violations to human review.
Graph RAG for Causal Structure Extraction: Matrix Methods for Multi-Hop Retrieval with Evidence Cohesion
How organizational knowledge graphs enable responsibility chain tracing and risk concentration detection
Standard RAG often retrieves flat document chunks that under-represent relational structure needed for causal and responsibility reasoning. Graph RAG models documents and entities as nodes in an adjacency matrix, enabling multi-hop retrieval along causal paths in organizational knowledge. We formalize an h-hop diffusion score, derive hop-depth choices from a noise-accuracy tradeoff, and introduce an evidence-cohesion metric that gates response generation by subgraph density. In contract-corpus evaluations, the method reported 73.4% causal-path extraction accuracy at 3 hops, a 31% improvement over flat Top-k RAG for responsibility-chain identification, and `r = 0.87` correlation between cohesion score and response correctness.