IntelligenceFebruary 15, 202639 min read

Collective Calibration Dynamics: How Agent Teams Achieve Shared Epistemic Accuracy in MARIA OS

A formal analysis of how multi-agent teams calibrate collective confidence through structured interaction, showing why individual calibration is necessary but insufficient for team-level epistemic accuracy and how topology governs convergence

Individual calibration error measures how well one agent's stated confidence matches realized accuracy. In collaborative settings, however, a distinct phenomenon appears: collective calibration, where team-level confidence must track team-level accuracy. This paper defines collective calibration error as a metric that cannot be reduced to aggregated individual calibration, proves that individually well-calibrated agents can still form a poorly calibrated team under certain interaction topologies, and derives sufficient graph conditions for convergence. We validate the framework on MARIA OS deployments with 623 agents across 9 zones, showing a 41.7% reduction in collective calibration error via topology-aware reflection scheduling.

meta-cognitioncalibrationcollective-intelligenceMARIA-OSepistemic-accuracyagent-teamsconfidence
IntelligenceFebruary 14, 202637 min read

Detecting Groupthink in Agent Teams: Persistent Homology for Blind-Spot Alerts

Topological signals expose hidden coverage gaps and groupthink risk that pairwise diversity metrics can miss

Persistent homology tracks coverage holes across scales to flag latent team blind spots earlier.

agent-teamspersistent-homologyblind-spot-detectiongroupthinkmeta-insighttopological-data-analysisdecision-qualityai-collaborationSEO-research
EngineeringFebruary 14, 202638 min read

Productive Disagreement Protocol for Agent Teams: Structured Dissent for Higher-Quality Decisions

Operationalize evidence-backed dissent, validation diversity, and anti-groupthink interventions

Structured disagreement channels dissent into testable claims, improving decision quality without collapsing throughput.

agent-teamsdisagreement-protocolgroupthink-preventionmeta-insightdecision-qualityorganizational-learningmulti-agent-governancevalidation-diversitySEO-research